What you need to know, March 22, 2026: “Climate change, overuse send the Middle Rio Grande into ‘dire’ situation”

Take a close look at the USDA graph above. It was presented by Hannah Riseley-White, director of the Interstate Stream Commission which regulates the water flow of the Rio Grande at a workshop on the crisis in the Middle Rio Grande basin. The graph represents the water from the winter snowpack that provides water for the Rio Grande in equivalent inches plotted against the six months of the year when there is snow runoff.

The blue line represents the maximum snow runoff in the river. The green is the median snowmelt (half the flows are above this line and half below). The red line shows the minimum snowmelt over the years. Each line has a shaded area that shows the extent of the yearly variations.

Then there is the black line. That is us right now, this year. The black line has crossed below the red line. That means that we are experiencing less snowmelt in the river than at any time since measurements began: less than 4 inches of snow water equivalent. Also, importantly, the black line peaked much earlier than the other curves. Notice the little green square, which shows the median peak. That is, we are already well on our way downwards when even in dry years in the past, we had rising water levels at this time of year.

No water in the Middle Rio Grande means no water going into Elephant Butte Reservoir.  And, that means no water for the Lower Rio Grande which is already facing its own legal problems taking Texas and Mexico waters out of the river.  New Mexico may be facing another Rio Grande Compact violation shortly, this time on Middle Rio Grande’s failure to deliver water to the Reservoir.

What we are seeing, in the graph and in reality, is not drought. We’ve had major droughts before, like in the fifties, but we’ve never seen this kind of scarcity of water. This is climate change. The loss of water for New Mexico is permanent. Meanwhile, our leaders are still talking development, bring more people, start more businesses, bring back mining, green those golf courses, and build new industries.

Here is the link to Laura Paskus’ new article on water in the Middle Rio Grande: “Climate change, overuse send the Middle Rio Grande into ‘dire’ situation” published March 20th by Source New Mexico (https://sourcenm.com/).