Last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its weather forecasts for June and also for the three month period June, July, August (JJA). They predict that we will have an early monsoon and that the monsoon season will bring more than normal rains. In fact, last weekend’s rains in Kingston may be the beginning.
But look closely at the map. The prediction is statistical. It is given in terms not of actual rainfall but in terms of a range of chances at being above or below normal. What is normal for now is defined as the average during a running thirty-year period from 1991 to 2020. If I remember correctly, that period includes some drought years. Being above normal may not mean a lot of rain. Still, it’s a good outlook for us.
Of course, countering this nice prospect is the outlook for temperature. NOAA predicts a chance that both June and the summer will be warmer than usual.